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Tunisia News

Tunisia · Europe · Geopolitics: the daily brief
Background

Growth and what carries it

In a first estimate, the National Institute of Statistics put Tunisia's growth at 2.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 against the same quarter of 2025, and services and agriculture carried most of it: industry as a whole managed 0.3 per cent and mining fell 9.6. Two institutions have since put the full year below that: the World Bank at 2.3 per cent and the EBRD at 2.4, against the 3.3 the budget bill assumed.

The 2026 budget bill assumed growth of 3.3 per cent. Six months in, Tunisia's statistics institute measured 2.4, and 72 per cent of the half year's foreign direct investment went into manufacturing, whose value added grew 0.9 per cent in the second quarter.
Growth and what carries it

The National Institute of Statistics put Tunisia's growth at 2.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 against the same quarter of 2025, and 2.4 per cent over the first half. Services carried the largest share, 1.18 points of that 2.3, with hotels and restaurants up 4.6 per cent, and agriculture grew fastest at 5.5 per cent. Domestic demand, that is consumption and investment, rose 3.3 per cent and contributed 3.61 points. Net external trade took 1.33 points away: imports rose 11.2 per cent against exports at 10.4.

Industry as a whole managed 0.3 per cent. Value added in energy, mining, water and waste fell 1.7 per cent, with mining down 9.6 per cent and oil and gas extraction down 1.1. The institute's industrial production index, published on 18 August 2026, shows the same fall: output rose 1.5 per cent in the quarter, while mining fell 9.9 per cent and chemicals 6.4. Over six months output rose 2.9 per cent, helped by oil refining up 123.4 per cent after several stoppages the previous year.

ONAGRI, the agriculture observatory, counted 368,000 tonnes of olive oil exported over the first nine months of the 2025/2026 season, to the end of July 2026, against 236,900 a year earlier, a rise of 55.3 per cent. Receipts were 4,605.3 million dinars, up 44.4 per cent. Réalités puts the same receipts at about 1.4 billion euros, and says volume outran revenue because the harvest was abundant and world prices fell. Most of the oil leaves in bulk, 86 per cent of the volume and 81.4 per cent of the receipts.

Foreign investment goes to different sectors from the ones that grew. FIPA, the foreign investment promotion agency, put international investment at 1,929.5 million dinars to the end of June 2026. Direct investment was 1,911.8 million of it, and manufacturing took 72 per cent, energy 19 per cent, services 7.7 and agriculture 1.3. Manufacturing value added grew 0.9 per cent in the quarter, against agriculture's 5.5. Tunisia is counting on 4 billion dinars for the whole of 2026, against 3.5 billion in 2025.

For the government, the half year shows an economy that can absorb internal and external shocks. Samir Abdelhafidh, the economy and planning minister, presented the framework of the 2027 economic budget to a ministerial council chaired by Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri on 19 August 2026. An economic budget is the yearly plan that must square with the same year's finance bill. The 2026 budget bill had assumed 3.3 per cent for the year, against the 2.4 measured so far, and La Presse's account of the council carries no revised figure.

Two forecasts arrived in late September 2026 and both sit under the budget's assumption. The World Bank's Tunisia Economic Update, reported on 22 September, puts real GDP growth at 2.3 per cent for 2026 against 2.7 per cent in 2025, and an average of 2.1 per cent across 2027 and 2028. The EBRD, publishing on 24 September, puts 2026 at 2.4 per cent and 2027 at 2.3. The 2026 budget bill assumed 3.3. The World Bank names the constraints as barriers to competition, limited access to financing, policy distortions and low female labour force participation, and reports the energy deficit up 30 per cent in the first half and the current account deficit up 49 per cent in nominal terms. It also warns that the turn to domestic funding, including direct central bank financing of the budget that has been recurrent since 2024, could crowd out private credit and add to inflation.

The EBRD puts the division this page is about in a single line: improved agricultural production has helped offset weaker performance in chemicals, textiles and other industrial sectors. Dates are the clearest instance of the first half of that sentence. Kaïsar Ben Arfa, who heads the date producers' group, said exports had passed 150,000 tonnes and a billion dinars for the first time, with the season still running. ONAGRI had them at 144,100 tonnes and 908.4 million dinars at the end of July. Tunisian dates reach about 94 countries, and European markets take about 40 per cent.

The numbers

Growth, second quarter of 2026 against the same quarter of 2025
2.3%
GDP grew 2.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 against the same quarter of 2025, and, in seasonally adjusted terms, 1.4 per cent against the first quarter of 2026. Over the first half of 2026 growth was 2.4 per cent against the first half of 2025. The figures are first estimates from the quarterly national accounts of the National Institute of Statistics, published on 15 August 2026.
La Presse de Tunisie
What each sector added, second quarter of 2026
5.5% agriculture, 0.3% industry
In the second quarter of 2026, year on year: agriculture 5.5 per cent, services 1.9 per cent, hotels and restaurants 4.6 per cent, information and communication 3.5 per cent, transport 1.7 per cent, construction 3.6 per cent, manufacturing industries 0.9 per cent, industry as a whole 0.3 per cent, and energy, mining, water and waste minus 1.7 per cent, with mining at minus 9.6 per cent and oil and gas extraction at minus 1.1 per cent. Services made the largest sectoral contribution to growth, 1.18 percentage points, and agriculture 0.51.
Challenges TN
Where the growth came from, and what took some of it away
Domestic demand, that is consumption spending and gross fixed capital formation, rose 3.3 per cent year on year in the second quarter of 2026 and contributed 3.61 percentage points to growth. Net external trade contributed minus 1.33 percentage points over the same quarter. Exports of goods and services rose 10.4 per cent and imports 11.2 per cent. These are contributions to the growth rate, not growth rates themselves.
Tustex
Industrial production index, second quarter of 2026
The National Institute of Statistics published its industrial production index for June 2026 on 18 August 2026. Industrial production rose 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 and 2.9 per cent over the first six months. In the quarter, agri-food rose 2.6 per cent, the mechanical and electrical industries 3.8 per cent and building materials, ceramics and glass 1.2 per cent, while chemicals fell 6.4 per cent, energy 1.1 per cent and mining 9.9 per cent. Over the six months oil refining rose 123.4 per cent, which the institute attributes to activity resuming after several stoppages the previous year, and textiles, clothing and leather fell 3.4 per cent.
INS
Olive oil exported over nine months of the 2025/2026 season
368,000 tonnes
Over the first nine months of the 2025/2026 season, to the end of July 2026, Tunisia exported 368,000 tonnes of olive oil against 236,900 tonnes over the same period of the previous season, a rise of 55.3 per cent, for receipts of 4,605.3 million dinars against 3,190 million, a rise of 44.4 per cent. The European Union took 57.1 per cent of the volume, Spain 32.1 per cent and Italy 20 per cent, the United States 19.2 per cent and Canada 4.8. Extra virgin oil was 83.6 per cent of the volume. Oil sold in bulk was 86 per cent of the volume exported and packaged oil 14 per cent. The figures are ONAGRI's, reported by the TAP agency.
Kapitalis
Why the receipts rose more slowly than the volumes
Réalités puts the receipts of the same nine months at about 1.4 billion euros, a rise of 44.4 per cent against a rise of 55.3 per cent in volume, and writes that volumes grew faster than revenue mainly because the Tunisian harvest was abundant this season and because international prices fell back from the peaks of earlier years. In receipts, bulk oil was 81.4 per cent and packaged oil 18.6 per cent. Réalités adds that this structure limits the value added kept in Tunisia, since part of the oil is bottled and sold abroad under brands that are not Tunisian.
Réalités
Foreign investment to the end of June 2026, and where it went
72% to manufacturing
FIPA, the foreign investment promotion agency, put international investment at 1,929.5 million dinars to the end of June 2026, which it reports as 11.5 per cent above 2025 and 41.7 per cent above 2024. La Presse does not say whether those comparisons are with the full years or with the same six months. Foreign direct investment was 1,911.8 million of the total and portfolio investment 17.7 million, the latter 81.3 per cent above the same period of 2025. Manufacturing took 72 per cent of the direct investment, energy 19 per cent, services 7.7 and agriculture 1.3. Tunisia is counting on 4 billion dinars of foreign investment by the end of 2026, against 3.5 billion in 2025.
La Presse de Tunisie
What the 2026 budget bill assumed
The 2026 budget bill, reported on 5 November 2025, was built on a growth rate of 3.3 per cent for the whole of 2026 and a reference price of 63.3 dollars for a barrel of Brent crude. The budget envelope was 79,624 million dinars, 3.9 per cent above the results expected for 2025. The finance law for 2026 was promulgated the following month.
WebManagerCenter
What the ministerial council of 19 August 2026 was told
Samir Abdelhafidh, minister of economy and planning, presented the framework of the 2027 economic budget to a ministerial council chaired by head of government Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri on Wednesday 19 August 2026. He gave growth of 2.4 per cent for the first half of 2026, 2.3 per cent for the second quarter and 1.4 per cent against the first quarter, and unemployment of 14.9 per cent against 15.3 per cent in the same period a year earlier. The priorities named were public and private investment, faster delivery of projects, the business environment, competitiveness, digital transformation and innovation, and sovereign resources with diversified financing.
La Presse de Tunisie
What the industry ministry approved for packaged olive oil
The ministry of industry announced on Friday 8 May 2026 that it had approved the advertising and promotional programmes of firms producing and exporting packaged olive oil for 2026. The stated aim is to strengthen Tunisian olive oil's position on its traditional markets and to speed up its entry to Canada, the United States, the Gulf states, China, Russia and Brazil. In the first quarter of 2026 packaged olive oil exports were more than 20,000 tonnes against about 11,000 a year earlier, worth 340 million dinars, 69 per cent more in value than a year earlier.
Managers
The two 2026 forecasts, late September 2026
2.3% and 2.4%
The World Bank put real GDP growth at 2.3 per cent for 2026 against 2.7 per cent in 2025, with an average of 2.1 per cent across 2027 and 2028. The EBRD put 2026 at 2.4 per cent and 2027 at 2.3. The 2026 budget bill assumed 3.3
Webdo
Date exports, 2026 season
150,000 tonnes
Past 150,000 tonnes and a billion dinars for the first time, with the season still running. ONAGRI had them at 144,100 tonnes and 908.4 million dinars at the end of July. Tunisian dates reach about 94 countries and European markets take about 40 per cent
Webdo

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

The statistics institute measures mining in two different series, and both fall. The national accounts show its value added falling 9.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, and the industrial production index shows its output falling 9.9 per cent over the same quarter.

What nobody is saying

Nobody says what share of the olive oil should leave the country packaged, or by when. The industry ministry approved advertising and promotion programmes for packaged-oil exporters on 8 May 2026, and the announcement, as Managers reported it, names the markets it is aiming at but gives neither a share nor a deadline.

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