Inflation in Tunisia: what the central bank can and cannot reach
Tunisia's annual inflation rose to 5.6 percent in September 2026, with food and drink at 8.4 percent. The central bank held its policy rate at 7 percent in July and again in October, and in a circular of 9 October it raised the reserve requirement on sight deposits from 1 percent to 3, effective 1 November. Fuel prices, which the state sets, have not changed since 2021, and the 2027 finance bill would let the Treasury draw up to 9.8 billion dinars from the same bank.
Tunisia's inflation rate comes from the statistics institute, INS, which publishes a consumer price index every month. The annual rate was 5.6 percent in September 2026, up from 5.4 percent in August and the highest of the nine monthly readings INS has published this year. INS explains it by three groups accelerating over the year: food and drink, up 8.4 percent, clothing and footwear, up 9.2 percent, and education, up 5.5 percent. In September alone prices rose 0.8 percent.
The central bank's main instrument has not moved: the board held the rate at 7.00 percent on 29 July and again on 7 October. In July its own core measure, which strips out fresh food and administered prices, had sat at 5 percent for three months, which the bank read as persistent internal pressure on prices. By October that measure read 5.1 percent, and the board said inflation risks were still on the upside. INS measures core differently, excluding food and energy, and put it at 4.9 percent in September.
The central bank's other lever is the reserve requirement. Circular 2026-11 of 9 October raises it from 1 percent to 3 percent on 1 November, on sight deposits and other sums banks owe customers. The requirement stays at zero on savings accounts, term deposits and certificates of deposit. Three percent of a billion dinars is 30 million, where 1 percent was 10. L'Économiste Maghrébin says the instrument is meant to steady money market rates and widen banks' need for central bank money, which is how the bank regulates liquidity.
In July the central bank said stable prices take more than monetary policy, and asked all economic policy to pull the same way. Energy is the first cause it names: a record energy bill of 8,502 million dinars in the first half of 2026. The current account was 4,241 million dinars in deficit over that half, and 4,694 million over eight months on the October board's figures. Fuel prices have not changed since 2021, so the gap between world prices and the pump falls on the budget, not the index.
The 2027 finance bill would let the Treasury draw up to 9.8 billion dinars interest-free from the central bank, setting aside article 25 of the 2016 law that sets its statute. Fitch counted the same lending at 7 billion dinars in 2024 and again in 2025, and 11 billion in the 2026 finance law. In September it expected that to end in 2027. Webdo puts the advance at about 67 percent of the projected 14.615 billion dinar deficit and close to 35 percent of a 28.122 billion financing need.
The numbers
What the comparison shows
Where they agree
The bank's July communiqué, Belhaj and Soussi all put a number on energy. The communiqué records an energy import bill of 8,502 million dinars for the first half of 2026, and a current account that was 2,538 million in surplus once energy was taken out. Belhaj's reading of the trade figures puts the energy deficit on its own at 7,946.1 million dinars of a 14,957.6 million trade deficit. Soussi's is a budget number: a fuel subsidy of about 11.2 billion dinars for the year, against roughly 5 billion allowed.
Where they split
Chkoundali says tightening bank liquidity cannot reach this inflation, because on his reading of the bank's own board the pressure comes from the cost of production, energy and raw materials rather than from demand. He expects the cost to land on credit and investment instead. Saïed had asked banks in September to lend more easily and on better terms, and the circular of 9 October locks up 30 million dinars for every billion of sight deposits. Belhaj calls the high policy rate crisis management rather than an answer to the causes.
What nobody is saying
When the board met on 7 October it ran through inflation at length and never mentioned the reserve requirement it would raise two days later. The circular itself is written as an amendment to a rate grid. So the purpose on this page comes from L'Économiste Maghrébin, which explains the instrument in terms of money market rates and liquidity, and from Chkoundali, who infers an inflation motive from the board's own statement rather than from anything the bank said about the circular.
Who says what
Receiving the head of government and the central bank governor at Carthage on 23 September, he called on banks to support the economy, to make credit easier to get on favourable terms, and to respect the central bank's circulars. La Presse reports that what it calls the excessive rise in prices took up much of the meeting, and that he pressed for imports to be rationalised and for the fight against corruption to go on without let-up. He said the social state must not stay a slogan in the constitution but be something a citizen feels day to day.
In an analysis on his Facebook page, reported by L'Économiste Maghrébin on 13 October, he argues that squeezing bank liquidity cannot reach this inflation, because the bank itself, he says, traces the pressure to the cost of production, energy and raw materials rather than to demand. On his reading the measure slows credit, private investment and growth instead. He also sets it against the state's interest-free honour loans: a bank funding those while locking up more of its deposits has less room, and small and medium firms are first in line. He grants that the honour loans come from provisions on past profits rather than from the deposits the requirement is calculated on, and says the strain stands anyway.
In a Facebook post reported by Réalités on 12 August, he reads a trade deficit of 14,957.6 million dinars, against 11,904.2 million in the same period of 2025, as structural rather than a passing external shock. His evidence is the non-energy deficit, which has almost doubled in two years. Export cover of imports fell to 73.1 percent from 79.4, a third straight annual decline, with the energy deficit on its own at 7,946.1 million dinars. He calls the central bank's response, a self-financing rule for imports judged non-priority and a high policy rate, short-term crisis management rather than an answer to the causes.
He says the 2026 fuel subsidy could reach about 11.2 billion dinars, against roughly 5 billion in a budget built on a barrel at 63.3 dollars. On his reckoning an average barrel near 95 dollars would add 6.288 billion dinars of spending, and crude passed 104 dollars at times. Pump prices have not moved since 2021 and the periodic adjustment mechanism has not been used, he says, so the state carries much of the gap. A supplementary finance law would be the technical way to find the money.
Our coverage
- Central bank triples banks' reserve requirement to 3%, from November 1, to curb liquiditySunday, 18 October 2026
- Tunisia's central bank holds rate at 7%, citing rising energy costs and slower growthThursday, 8 October 2026
- Tunisia's inflation rises to 5.6 percent in September, food to 8.4Monday, 5 October 2026
- Cash in circulation in Tunisia tops 30 billion dinars for the first timeTuesday, 25 August 2026
- Inflation stood at 5.1 percent in July, with food still running at 6.6Saturday, 8 August 2026
- Tunisia's inflation eases to 5.1 percent in July, but food prices keep climbingThursday, 6 August 2026
- Central bank holds its policy rate at 7 percent, warning on inflation and the energy billFriday, 31 July 2026
- Central bank holds its policy rate at 7 percent and flags a record energy billThursday, 30 July 2026