Does Tunisia's 2027 budget finally breathe, or is it still borrowing its way through?
Financial analyst Bassem Naifer expects 2027 to bring lighter debt pressure, yet the government's draft budget still rests on a fourth straight year of direct borrowing from the central bank. Economists, the union and the government itself read Tunisia's debt-financed course in sharply different ways, and whether this budget marks a turning point or just another deferred bill depends on which reading holds.
Where they agree
None of the four disputes that Tunisia's public finances remain under real pressure heading into 2027; they differ entirely in how much relief, if any, this budget offers against that pressure.
Where they split
Chkoundali sees a fourth consecutive year of dangerous dependence on central bank financing and a deficit nobody can properly judge without execution data; Naifer instead expects real relief as debt service falls. Selmi measures Tunisia's wage policy against wage earners' purchasing power and finds it wanting, while the minister measures the state's position against its ability to meet its commitments and calls that resilience.
Chkoundali warns of a projected 14.6 billion dinar deficit and says the state's total revenue of 54.25 billion dinars falls short of planned spending of 68.89 billion. He singles out a new interest-free central bank facility of 9.8 billion dinars, repayable over fifteen years, as the fourth consecutive year of the same practice, and says the absence of published 2026 execution data makes it impossible to judge whether the revenue targets are realistic.
Naifer expected 2027 to give Tunisia more room to manoeuvre than the previous three years, mainly because debt-service pressure was set to ease: he forecast repayments falling below 2026 levels and approaching 2023's roughly 20 billion dinars. He framed the coming budget as an attempt to repair the damage done to public finances rather than merely survive another year.
”Je m'attends à ce que l'année prochaine s'ouvre avec un budget visant à réparer les dommages subis par les finances publiques.”I expect next year to open with a budget aimed at repairing the damage done to public finances.
Selmi says the pay rises planned for 2026 through 2028, fixed amounts of between 90 and 120 dinars not folded into the base salary, are not enough to offset the continuing erosion of purchasing power under persistent inflation. UGTT is demanding that social dialogue over the budget resume and has put forward its own proposals: revising the income-tax scale, increasing public investment and rebalancing debt policy.
”un dialogue social réel et responsable”real, responsible social dialogue
Finance Minister Michket Slama Khaldi points to what she calls the national economy's resilience and the progress made despite financial pressures, and says the government intends to fully honour the state's commitments, including repaying debt on schedule, while continuing to pursue growth, a stable dinar exchange rate and controlled inflation.