Food security in Tunisia
Tunisia had a good grain year in 2026 and is still expected to buy more wheat abroad than it grows. What it grows is durum, while bread flour is milled from common wheat that is largely imported, and the state covers the gap between the import price and the subsidised price it sells at. The same summer's heat then killed enough poultry to leave the agriculture ministry looking at importing hatching eggs.
Tunisia's 2026 cereal harvest came in above plan. La Presse reported on 1 August that harvesting was 98 percent done, with more than 10.752 million quintals collected, out of a crop the agriculture ministry estimated at more than 20 million quintals. Tunisia's economic budget had planned on 19 million quintals. A quintal is 100 kilograms, so the crop is above 2 million tonnes of grain of every kind. The 98 percent measures how far harvesting had got, not how much of the crop reached a collection centre.
The US Department of Agriculture counts wheat alone, in tonnes. Its April 2026 report forecasts production at 1.2 million tonnes for 2026/27, against consumption of 3 million tonnes and imports of 1.85 million: Tunisia grows two fifths of the wheat it eats. The Office des Céréales is the only importer for the home market. What it brings in sells at a subsidised rate and the state covers the difference, so a rise in the world price lands on the budget, not the bread counter.
That forecast puts durum at 1.098 million tonnes and common wheat at 102,000 tonnes. Bread flour is milled from common wheat, and La Presse says a large part of that wheat is imported. The two figures sit on different bases. The USDA's is an April forecast, made before the harvest. La Presse reported on 1 August that 1.1 million quintals of common wheat, 110,000 tonnes, had been collected, against 600,000 quintals the season before. It puts monthly consumption at 100,000 tonnes, so a year's collection is about a month's eating.
The same summer hit poultry. Réalités reported on 7 September that heat waves and repeated cuts to power and water had pushed mortality to 100 percent in some poultry houses, on national television's figures. The national chamber of poultry and white meat traders expects about 11,000 tonnes in September, against the 16,000 tonnes it expected before the heat. It puts consumption at 350 to 400 tonnes a day, so September's output is roughly a month's eating. The agriculture ministry is looking at importing hatching eggs for November and December.
Compensation runs on paperwork. Salah Charfeddine heads the regional agricultural union in Mahdia. On 30 August he told the TAP news agency that no losses had been recorded among farmers operating inside the legal framework, and that nothing had reached his union showing those farms were legal. A permit and a qualification certificate open the agriculture ministry's disaster fund. On 7 September he put July's losses there at 150,000 to 200,000 birds on about 200 farms. The first statement is about claims, the second about dead birds.
”Despite concerns that the wheat subsidy is becoming too expensive for the Tunisian budget, there is no indication that the subsidy program will change or imports will decrease.”
The numbers
What the comparison shows
Where they agree
Nothing either body says points to Tunisia buying less wheat. The USDA states flatly that there is no indication the subsidy programme will change or imports decrease. The Office des Céréales claims less than that: the durum collected should cover national needs in that grain until January 2027, which is a date, not a change in what has to be bought.
Where they split
The two bodies are not contradicting each other; they are counting different grains. The Office counts durum, 1.098 million tonnes of the 1.2 million tonnes of wheat the USDA forecasts, and says the collection covers national needs to January 2027. The USDA counts all wheat, including the common wheat Tunisia barely grows, and still has imports rising. A good durum year does nothing for the common wheat.
What nobody is saying
The USDA calls the subsidy's burden on the state budget extreme and never says how much it costs. Réalités says the poultry sector has no official statistics recent or precise enough to measure the losses nationally or count the farms hit. The interprofessional group for poultry and rabbit products asked farmers to file loss declarations by 7 September, and Réalités says the agriculture ministry will use the results to decide how to adjust production. Until a national figure lands, the only count is one regional union's, for one governorate. The count Salah Charfeddine gave does not say how many of those 200 farms hold the permit and the certificate the disaster fund requires.
Who says what
Forecasts wheat imports at 1.85 million tonnes in 2026/27, 3 percent up on the year before, as Tunisia rebuilds stocks toward two months' supply. Says bread prices are a sensitive issue, and that the subsidy has stayed as it is despite what the report calls an extreme burden on the state budget.
”Despite concerns that the wheat subsidy is becoming too expensive for the Tunisian budget, there is no indication that the subsidy program will change or imports will decrease.”Despite concerns that the wheat subsidy is becoming too expensive for the Tunisian budget, there is no indication that the subsidy program will change or imports will decrease.
Said after the 2026 harvest that the durum collected should cover national needs in that grain until January 2027. La Presse adds that the volumes collected should cut import costs and improve the food trade balance.
Calls July a difficult and testing month for poultry farmers, and puts that down to the exceptional rise in temperature and humidity. He is a small farmer himself, and his broiler business feeds four families.
Says the long power cuts during the heat peaks made the losses worse. His own losses are heavy enough that he is thinking of leaving the trade, and he says he struggled to face the cuts and the heat on his own.
Our coverage
- Some Tunisian poultry farms lost up to 100% of flocks in summer heat, hatching-egg imports plannedTuesday, 8 September 2026
- Black Sea tensions push up the price of Tunisia's wheat importsFriday, 21 August 2026
- Grain collection closes at 10.75 million quintals, with durum stocks covering needs to January 2027Monday, 3 August 2026