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Tunisia News

Tunisia · Europe · Geopolitics: the daily brief
Background

Five years of Kais Saied

Five years after Kais Saied invoked emergency powers and suspended parliament, Tunisia has a new constitution, and no national vote since has drawn a third of the electorate. Through the summer of 2026 the state could not keep the water and the electricity running.

A single seat in the El Kabaria district of Tunis was certified in August 2026 on a margin of two votes. Turnout in that by-election was 4.19 per cent, 2,520 people out of 60,111 registered. The central bank's 2025 report puts investment at 15.5 per cent of GDP and the tax burden at 25.9.
Five years of Kais Saied

On 25 July 2021 President Kais Saied invoked Article 80 of the 2014 constitution. He suspended the work of parliament, lifted the immunity of its members and dismissed the head of government. The measures were presented as exceptional. Parliament was then dissolved, the Supreme Judicial Council with it, and Saied legislated by decree-law. A new constitution was approved by referendum in 2022. Four heads of government have served since, all appointed by Saied.

No national vote since has drawn a third of registered voters. The 2022 constitutional referendum drew 30.5 per cent on the electoral commission's revised count. The second round of the legislative elections drew 11.3 per cent in January 2023, on the commission president's figure that night. Saied was re-elected in the first round in October 2024, with 90.69 per cent of the votes cast on a turnout of 28.8 per cent. A by-election in El Kabaria, in Tunis, brought 2,520 of 60,111 registered voters out on 19 July 2026.

The Central Bank of Tunisia revises its national accounts between reports, so figures from different editions do not line up. Its 2025 report puts public debt at 82.1 per cent of GDP. Investment was 15.5 per cent of GDP in 2025; the 2022 report had put it at 16.0 per cent for 2021. The tax burden went the other way, from 23.3 per cent to 25.9. The OECD counts compulsory social contributions as taxes and puts Tunisia at 34.0 per cent for 2023, highest of 38 African countries.

The anniversary, 25 July 2026, fell after weeks of exceptional heat. STEG, the state electricity and gas company, ran rolling cuts across several regions and water supply was disrupted, Webdo reported. That morning supporters of the president gathered outside the Municipal Theatre in Tunis with songs and slogans. In the late afternoon, Webdo cited Agence France-Presse for a march of more than 2,500 people through central Tunis, against the cuts, the cost of living, the prosecution of opponents and the narrowing of public freedoms.

Marchers on 25 July chanted that there was neither water nor electricity, only prison and higher prices, Webdo reported. Hamza Meddeb argues the anger is real but lands on the state electricity and water companies, sometimes on the government, never on the presidency. Arab Barometer's survey of 1,023 Tunisians in late 2025 found 44 per cent expressing a great deal or quite a lot of trust in the government, the highest since 2011. Al Jazeera reports nearly all of the government's critics are jailed or in exile.

”That anger has to go somewhere and it's being aimed at the state-owned electricity and water companies, sometimes it's aimed at the government, but never at the one figure who has control: the president.”
Hamza MeddebTunisian academic and researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center, now based in France

The numbers

Investment rate and tax burden in 2021, as recorded in the bank's 2022 report
Investment 16.0 % of GDP
Investment, measured as gross fixed capital formation, 16.0 per cent of GDP; tax revenue 23.3 per cent of GDP. The same table gives 15.8 per cent investment and 22.7 per cent tax burden for 2020.
Investment rate and tax burden in 2025, as recorded in the bank's 2025 report
Investment 15.5 % of GDP
Investment 15.5 per cent of GDP, after 15.2 per cent in 2024 and 15.7 per cent in 2023; the bank forecasts 16.0 per cent for 2026. Tax revenue 25.9 per cent of GDP, after 26.1 per cent in 2024 and 25.4 per cent in 2023.
Public debt in 2025, and growth, as recorded in the bank's 2025 report
82.1 % of GDP
GDP growth 0.2 per cent in 2023, 1.6 per cent in 2024, 2.5 per cent in 2025, with 3.3 per cent forecast for 2026. Public debt 84.6 per cent of GDP in 2023, 84.9 per cent in 2024, 82.1 per cent in 2025.
Tax-to-GDP ratio in 2023 on the OECD measure
34.0 % of GDP
34.0 per cent of GDP in 2023, the highest of the 38 African countries covered, against an Africa average of 16.1 per cent. This measure counts compulsory social security contributions as taxes and so runs higher than the Tunisian central bank's series.
Turnout at the constitutional referendum of 25 July 2022
30.5 % turnout
ISIE announced a turnout of 27.54 per cent on the night, then published a revised 30.5 per cent the next day, adding 371,109 ballots to the total. The text was approved with 94.6 per cent in favour. Inkyfada notes that 30.5 per cent is the lowest turnout of any vote held in Tunisia since 2011, below the 33.7 per cent of the 2018 municipal elections.
The 2024 presidential election, on ISIE's final results
28.8 % turnout
ISIE proclaimed the final results on 11 October 2024. Kaïs Saïed won 2,438,954 votes, 90.69 per cent, elected in the first round; Ayachi Zammel 197,551 votes or 7.35 per cent and Zouhaïer Maghzaoui 52,903 or 1.97 per cent. 2,808,548 people voted out of 9,753,217 registered, a general turnout of 28.8 per cent, with 34,187 blank and 84,953 spoiled ballots.
Political interest and trust in government, Arab Barometer's ninth wave, fielded 30 October to 30 November 2025
24 % interested in politics
24 per cent of Tunisians said they were interested in politics, the lowest since 2011, and 48 per cent said they were very uninterested. 44 per cent expressed a great deal or quite a lot of trust in the government, eight points up on 2023 and the highest since the 2011 revolution. Asked to name democracy's primary pillar, 5 per cent said free and fair elections. Face-to-face survey of 1,023 people, margin of error 3 points.
The El Kabaria by-election, second round of 19 July 2026, on ISIE's preliminary results
7 votes, preliminary
Second round, 19 July 2026: Chaker Ben Abdessalem Bouthouri 1,225 votes or 50.14 per cent against Mohamed Salah Ben Hasnaoui Salmi 1,218 or 49.86 per cent, a margin of seven votes. 2,520 of 60,111 registered voters took part, a turnout of about 4.19 per cent; 2,443 ballots were valid, 54 spoiled and 23 blank. ISIE noted campaign-monitoring irregularities that it judged had not affected the outcome, and states the result is preliminary until appeal deadlines expire.
The same seat, as certified by ISIE on 10 August 2026
Certified at 2 votes
ISIE's council certified the final result on 10 August 2026, once all appeals had been exhausted before the appeal chamber and the plenary assembly of the administrative court. Its spokesperson Mohamed Tlili Mansri said the seat went to Chaker Bouthouri by a margin of two votes. The result goes to the official gazette, the assembly is informed, and the new member takes up the seat on 1 October, the start of the parliamentary year. The account of the announcement gives no reason for the change from the preliminary margin of seven votes.
The two gatherings of 25 July 2026
2,500+ marchers
Webdo, citing Agence France-Presse, put the late-afternoon march in central Tunis at more than 2,500 people, protesting the economy, the water and electricity cuts, the prosecution of opponents and the narrowing of public freedoms. Webdo also reported a morning gathering of the president's supporters outside the Municipal Theatre, with songs, slogans of support and calls to carry on the course taken since 2021, in what it described as an atmosphere more festive than demanding.

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

Selmi, Bouderbala and Meddeb treat the failures of water and electricity as the central fact of the summer. Saied and Louzir put the public finances at the centre instead, Saied as borrowing that brought Tunisians no benefit, Louzir as a tax system reaching its limits. Aidoudi puts the interior regions and the standing of parliament at the centre. Four of the six call for change of some kind, whether they call it reform, a revision of public policy, a revision of development choices or a rebuilding of public services. Meddeb describes the situation rather than proposing a way out.

Where they split

On 27 July the assembly sat on the water and electricity cuts. Its speaker, Brahim Bouderbala, said the way through was to lean on the institutions of the state and on citizens, pressed for radical reforms, and urged members not to give in to pessimism. Ammar Aidoudi, a member for Kasserine, told the assembly the same day that its role has retreated and that the executive does not take up members' proposals. He said invitations to the president to visit the interior went unanswered. Saied, speaking a week earlier about the 2026-2030 development plan, blamed no one: the debts piled up without benefiting Tunisians, Tunisia repaid them on time, and they should now be turned into investment.

What nobody is saying

The El Kabaria seat belongs to the chamber Brahim Bouderbala chairs and Ammar Aidoudi sits in, and neither of them mentioned the by-election. Between the preliminary count of 19 July and certification on 10 August the margin narrowed from seven votes to two, and the reports of ISIE's announcement give no reason for the change. What a turnout of 4.19 per cent does to the standing of that chamber has not been argued in public by any of the names on this page.

Who says what

Slaheddine Selmi, Secretary general of the UGTT, Tunisia's main trade union confederation, elected at its congress in March 2026

In a speech for the 69th anniversary of the Republic, broadcast on the UGTT's official page, Selmi called for a revision of public policy and of economic choices. He said falling purchasing power, the rising cost of living and the degradation of public services, in health, education, transport, electricity, water, medicines and the social funds, amount to a deep crisis. He rejected the partial or total sale of public enterprises and asked for investment and reform instead. He said running public affairs without sufficient consultation with the national organisations and civil society does not resolve the difficulties, and called for more dialogue.

Kais Saied, President of the Republic of Tunisia since 2019

Meeting the head of government, the economy minister and the central bank governor at Carthage on 20 July, on the law approving the 2026-2030 development plan, Saied said debts had piled up without benefiting Tunisians, and that Tunisia had met all its obligations without any delay in repayment. He called for those debts to be converted into investment to rebuild public services.

”La Tunisie a honoré tous ses engagements et n'a accusé aucun retard dans le remboursement de ses obligations”Tunisia has honoured all its commitments and has been late on none of its repayment obligations
Brahim Bouderbala, Speaker of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People, the parliament elected in 2022-2023 under the new constitution

Opening a plenary session on the water and electricity cuts on 27 July, Bouderbala argued that the crisis should be met by relying on state institutions and citizen engagement. He pressed for radical reforms, with short-term action plans and an overall strategy for the medium and long term. He urged members not to give in to pessimism, saying other countries had faced similar crises and recovered through sound management.

Ammar Aidoudi, Member of parliament for Kasserine in the assembly elected under the rules set after 2021

Speaking in the plenary session on public affairs on 27 July, Aidoudi criticised what he called the retreat of parliament's role, and accused the executive of not engaging with the assembly and of not taking up members' proposals on regional concerns. He said members had become marginalised, and that invitations to the president to visit interior regions had gone unanswered. He said the development plan did not answer the interior regions' expectations and entrenched inequity in the distribution of projects, above all in the Kasserine governorate, and that several of its projects had been announced before. Social, regional and distributive justice had not been achieved, he said, and he called for the development choices to be revised.

Hamza Meddeb, Tunisian academic and researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center, now based in France

Meddeb describes censorship across the board, and says livestock are dying, restaurants closing, the sick suffering and some of the old dying. Al Jazeera reports power cuts of up to twelve hours.

”That anger has to go somewhere and it's being aimed at the state-owned electricity and water companies, sometimes it's aimed at the government, but never at the one figure who has control: the president.”That anger has to go somewhere and it's being aimed at the state-owned electricity and water companies, sometimes it's aimed at the government, but never at the one figure who has control: the president.
Mohamed Louzir, Secretary general of the Franco-Tunisian Chamber of Commerce and Industry

Presenting the 2026 finance law at an information day in Tunis on 8 January 2026, Louzir warned that the tax system is beginning to reach its limits. He called the law innovative and meant it sarcastically: it runs to 110 articles, half of them proposed by members of parliament, and it legislates pay rises directly instead of leaving them to bargaining between unions and employers. On value added tax he set out a calculation: on a market GDP estimated at 132 billion dinars and an average rate of 15 per cent, the state should collect close to 20 billion dinars, while actual receipts stall between 11 and 12 billion.

”Cependant, le système fiscal commence à atteindre ses limites, avec une pression fiscale désormais comparable à celle de nombreux pays de l'OCDE et largement supérieure à celle des pays africains”However, the tax system is beginning to reach its limits, with a tax burden now comparable to that of many OECD countries and well above that of African countries

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