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Background

Europe's rearmament

Europe has given itself until 2030 to be able to defend itself. The EU's credit line is open and paying out, and the military associations say their armies cannot recruit or keep enough people.

Europe's rearmament plan is called Readiness 2030. Its 150 billion euro credit line began paying out in May 2026. In a Euromil survey, most military associations called recruitment in their country problematic, and keeping personnel problematic or critical.
Europe's rearmament

The European Commission's rearmament plan has the deadline in its name: ReArm Europe, or Readiness 2030. Its first pillar is SAFE, a credit line of up to 150 billion euros for member states buying defence equipment. NATO's deadline falls later. At The Hague in June 2025, allies committed to invest 5 percent of GDP a year by 2035, at least 3.5 percent on core defence and up to 1.5 percent on critical infrastructure, networks, civil preparedness, innovation and the defence industry. The trajectory is due to be reviewed in 2029.

The SAFE regulation entered into force on 29 May 2025. The Commission has since endorsed national investment plans from 18 member states, and lists Hungary's as still under evaluation. Its own timeline puts the first disbursement a year later: 6.56 billion euros to Poland on 29 May 2026. Italy held out. The Commission proposed its 14.9 billion euros in January 2026, and Italy answered only on 28 July, when foreign minister Antonio Tajani told a parliamentary hearing that Rome would ask for the full amount before the year ended.

Andrius Kubilius, the EU's defence commissioner, said in February 2026 that Europe must be able to move about 100,000 soldiers and their equipment fast, matching a Russian build-up of the same size. The European Parliament warned in 2024 that European armed forces face severe recruitment and retention problems. In a Euromil survey reported by Euronews in August 2026, most military associations called recruitment in their country problematic, and keeping personnel problematic or critical.

Germany's defence ministry has costed a long-range strike programme at almost 12 billion euros, according to internal documents cited by Politico. It wants a cheap, mass-producible cruise missile in service from 2027, and American Tomahawks by the end of the decade. The two systems being built with Britain, a cruise missile and a hypersonic glider reaching beyond 2,000 kilometres, are scheduled for the mid-2030s, well after the readiness date. The funding is not approved. The sums sit in the government's fiscal planning and have to pass the Bundestag.

A three-page Pentagon questionnaire obtained by Al Jazeera asks allies whether they have publicly supported American foreign policy priorities, and whether they have restricted access to American bases or military overflights. Al Jazeera published it on 19 August 2026 and says the markings and phrasing suggest it is meant to guide American officials during a six-month review of US forces in Europe, still under way. SAFE lends for equipment, not for people. A Commission official told Euronews that recruitment and retention stay with each member state.

”To match a 100,000-army build up, we would need to move similar numbers of soldiers and equipment, and fast.”
Andrius KubiliusEuropean Commissioner for Defence

The numbers

What NATO members committed to at The Hague
5%
Allies commit to invest 5 percent of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence and security related spending by 2035: at least 3.5 percent of GDP on core defence requirements, and up to 1.5 percent on protecting critical infrastructure, defending networks, civil preparedness, innovation and the defence industrial base. The trajectory and balance of spending under the plan will be reviewed in 2029.
NATO
The EU's defence loan instrument, and who has been cleared for it
€150bn
SAFE provides up to 150 billion euros in competitively priced, long-maturity loans to member states requesting assistance for investments in defence capabilities. Projects must be based on common procurement involving at least one member state benefitting from SAFE and another member state, though the Commission says SAFE will also temporarily support procurement by individual member states. The regulation entered into force on 29 May 2025. The Commission lists endorsed national defence investment plans for 18 member states, and Hungary's as still under evaluation.
European Commission
Italy's share, and how long it took to accept it
€14.9bn
On 28 July 2026, after what Eunews describes as a standoff with Brussels, foreign minister Antonio Tajani told a hearing of the Chamber and Senate foreign affairs and defence committees that Italy had decided to use SAFE and would request 14.9 billion euros by the end of the year. Defence minister Guido Crosetto told the same committees that SAFE finances military spending already provided for in the budget rather than adding to it.
Eunews
The recruitment picture across European armies
In a Euromil survey of military personnel associations, most respondents described recruitment in their country as problematic, while keeping personnel was considered either problematic or critical. The biggest barriers to recruitment are competition from the private sector, salaries and physical fitness requirements. Personnel most commonly leave after around ten years of service, with low pay, poor work-life balance and other working conditions given as the main reasons. Euronews, which reported the survey on 21 August 2026, does not date it.
Euronews
Germany's long-range strike programme
€12bn
The defence ministry estimates almost 12 billion euros, according to internal documents cited by Politico. The first weapons, a low-cost cruise missile, could enter service from 2027, and Tomahawks on American Typhon launchers by the end of the decade. The two systems developed with Britain, a cruise missile and a hypersonic glide weapon reaching beyond 2,000 kilometres, are scheduled for the mid-2030s. Funding has not been approved: the sums are in the government's fiscal planning and must pass the Bundestag.
ProtoThema English
The Pentagon questionnaire, and the review behind it
A three-page document titled Questions for NATO Allies & Other Key Stakeholders, obtained by Al Jazeera, asks whether allies have been publicly supportive of US foreign policy priorities and whether they have placed restrictions on US access to bases and military flights. Al Jazeera says the markings and phrasing suggest the questions are meant to guide US officials during an ongoing six-month Pentagon review of American forces in Europe. It gives no start date for that review. It also reports that Spain has sought an exemption from the 2025 agreement among allies to raise military spending to 5 percent of GDP.
Al Jazeera

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

The date and the shortage are both agreed. The Commission named its plan Readiness 2030, and Kubilius works to the same year. The finding that European armies cannot recruit or keep enough people comes from the armies' own personnel associations, not from opponents of rearmament.

Where they split

The disagreement is about whose job the shortage is. Jacob's answer is that the investment only becomes capability if there are people to absorb it. The Commission's answer, given to Euronews by an official, is that recruitment and retention belong to member states. Rome's answer is narrower again: Crosetto told the July hearing that SAFE finances military spending already in the budget rather than adding to it.

What nobody is saying

None of the sources on this page say how many soldiers Europe has now. Kubilius's 100,000 is the number Europe would need to be able to move, not a recruitment target, and nothing here measures the distance between that and what Europe can move today. The figures that do get published are all money: a share of GDP, a credit line, a procurement plan.

Who says what

Andrius Kubilius, European Commissioner for Defence

Kubilius takes the date from intelligence services, which he says expect Russia to be ready and willing to test NATO by 2030. His scenario is 100,000 Russian soldiers massing at the EU and NATO border. He asks for the ability to move forces on that scale, not for an army of that size.

”To match a 100,000-army build up, we would need to move similar numbers of soldiers and equipment, and fast.”To match a 100,000-army build up, we would need to move similar numbers of soldiers and equipment, and fast.
Source: Euronews · Friday, 21 August 2026
Emmanuel Jacob, President of Euromil, the European Organisation of Military Associations and Trade Unions

Jacob says the shortage of personnel is not new, and that what has changed is the urgency, because the money is arriving now.

”At the end of the day we need to have enough people to deal with these investments.”At the end of the day we need to have enough people to deal with these investments.
Source: Euronews · Friday, 21 August 2026
Antonio Tajani, Foreign minister of Italy

Tajani treats the question as settled: Italy will request 14.9 billion euros. Eunews notes what Rome has actually accepted, a loan it has to repay, although one that will not count towards its debt under the common rules.

Source: Eunews · Tuesday, 28 July 2026

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